Why is political polarization getting worse, not better?

Political polarization—the divergence of attitudes toward ideological extremes—has become a defining feature of modern democracies. While divisions are not new, the intensity and vitriol of today’s political discourse suggest a troubling trend: polarization is worsening, not improving. This article examines the drivers behind this phenomenon, focusing on Kenya and the United States as case studies, while drawing parallels with other nations like Brazil, India, and Hungary. By analyzing recent data, socio-political dynamics, and technological influences, we explore why societies are fracturing and what this means for democratic stability.

The American Crucible: Ideological Warfare and Eroding Trust

In the United States, polarization has reached levels unseen since the Civil War era. A 2022 Pew Research study revealed that 72% of Americans believe the country is more divided today than in the past, with partisan animosity now extending beyond policy disagreements to outright distrust of opposing voters. For instance, 45% of Democrats and 38% of Republicans view supporters of the other party as “immoral,” a significant increase from 2016.

The 2020 election and its aftermath, including the January 6 Capitol riot, crystallized this divide. Former President Donald Trump’s refusal to concede and his continued claims of election fraud (despite lack of evidence) have entrenched a “post-truth” political culture. A 2023 Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 55% of Republicans still believe the 2020 election was “stolen,” illustrating how misinformation fuels division.

Structural Drivers

1. Media Fragmentation: The rise of partisan news outlets (e.g., Fox News, MSNBC) and social media algorithms that prioritize engagement over accuracy have created echo chambers. A 2024 Stanford study showed that users on platforms like X (Twitter) are six times more likely to encounter misinformation if they follow partisan accounts.

2. Gerrymandering: Safe congressional districts, drawn to favor one party, incentivize politicians to appeal to extremes rather than moderate voters. In 2023, the Brennan Center reported that 40% of U.S. House districts are non-competitive, deepening legislative gridlock.

3. Economic Inequality: The widening wealth gap (the top 1% now owns 32% of U.S. wealth) has fueled resentment, with populist movements on both the left (Bernie Sanders) and right (Trump) capitalizing on economic anxiety.

Kenya: Ethnicity, Electoral Violence, and Elite Exploitation

Kenya’s polarization is rooted in ethnic competition, historically manipulated by political elites. The 2022 presidential election, pitting William Ruto against Raila Odinga, reignited tensions between the Kalenjin-Kikuyu alliance and the Luo-led opposition. While the election itself was relatively peaceful, post-poll disputes led to violent protests in Odinga’s strongholds, resulting in 30 deaths.

Ethnic voting remains entrenched. A 2023 Afrobarometer survey found that 58% of Kenyans vote based on ethnic identity rather than policy platforms. Politicians exploit this: during campaigns, Ruto framed himself as a “hustler” challenging the “dynasties” (Kenyatta and Odinga families), while Odinga leveraged his base’s historical grievances over perceived marginalization.

Structural Drivers

1. Winner-Takes-All Politics: Kenya’s system concentrates power in the presidency, incentivizing elites to stoke ethnic fears to secure votes. Devolution, introduced in 2010, has mitigated some tensions, but 70% of county budgets still rely on central government allocations, perpetuating dependency.

2. Youth Unemployment: With 67% of Kenyans under 34 and youth unemployment at 13%, disaffection is rampant. Politicians weaponize this demographic’s frustrations, as seen in 2023’s anti-government protests against tax hikes, which Ruto framed as a “class war.”

3. Social Media Misinformation: Platforms like WhatsApp and Facebook spread hate speech and fake news during elections. A 2023 Mozilla Foundation report documented over 2,000 inflammatory posts targeting ethnic groups ahead of Kenya’s polls.

Global Parallels: Polarization Beyond Borders

Other democracies face similar fractures:

• Brazil: The 2022 election saw a near-rupture between supporters of Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro’s baseless fraud claims mirror Trump’s playbook, culminating in the January 2023 storming of Brazil’s Congress.

• India: Under Narendra Modi’s BJP, religious nationalism has deepened Hindu-Muslim divides. A 2023 Pew survey found 64% of Indians believe interfaith marriage is unacceptable, reflecting societal fragmentation.

• Hungary: Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has polarized politics by vilifying migrants and LGBTQ+ communities, consolidating power through media control and constitutional changes.

Why Is Polarization Intensifying? Key Drivers

1. Technological Amplification: Social media algorithms prioritize divisive content. A 2024 MIT study found that fake news spreads six times faster than factual content on X, with platforms profiting from outrage.

2. Economic Dislocation: Globalization and automation have left many feeling left behind. In the U.S., counties with declining industries were 30% more likely to vote for Trump in 2020, per Brookings data.

3. Erosion of Institutional Trust: Scandals (e.g., Kenya’s NYS corruption cases) and perceived elite impunity undermine faith in governance. Only 37% of Kenyans trust the judiciary, per Afrobarometer.

4. Identity Politics: Politicians increasingly frame issues in existential terms. In the U.S., debates over abortion and LGBTQ+ rights are no longer policy discussions but moral crusades.

Consequences and Pathways Forward

The stakes are high. Polarization erodes democratic norms, as seen in Kenya’s 2007-08 post-election violence (1,300 killed) and the U.S. Capitol attack. Economically, the IMF warns that polarization reduces GDP growth by discouraging compromise on critical reforms.

Potential Solutions

• Electoral Reforms: Ranked-choice voting (used in Alaska and Maine) and independent redistricting commissions could reduce extremism.

• Media Literacy: Kenya’s 2022 Electoral Code requiring fact-checking of political ads is a model.

• Grassroots Dialogue: Initiatives like Kenya’s “National Cohesion” forums and America’s “Braver Angels” workshops foster intergroup empathy.

Conclusion: A Call for Vigilance

Political polarization is not inevitable but a product of human choices. In both Kenya and the U.S., elites manipulate divisions for power, while technology and inequality amplify discontent. Reversing this trend demands systemic reforms, renewed civic engagement, and a collective commitment to bridging divides. Without such efforts, the very fabric of democracy risks unraveling—a warning echoed from Nairobi to Washington.

Sources:

1. Pew Research Center (2022): Link

2. Afrobarometer Kenya (2023): Link

3. Brennan Center (2023): Link

4. IMF on Polarization and Growth (2023): Link

5. MIT Study on Misinformation (2024): Link