Why Raila Odinga’s Vision Outlived His Victories
- Darn
- Oct 17, 2025
- 11 min read
Raila Amolo Odinga has never been easy to box in.
Table of Contents
1. Institutional reforms and constitutional legacy
2. Normalising protest and opposition politics
3. Pan‑African infrastructure and continental connectivity
4. The Pan‑African imagination
5. Mentorship and generational impact
6. A legend made by both defeat and resilience
For five decades the engineer‑turned‑agitation maestro dominated Kenya’s imagination, inspiring hope, causing unrest and often losing in the polls. The man nicknamed “Tinga” (“tractor”) because of his plough‑through persistence in politics, and “Baba” because his followers looked to him as a father figure, seemed destined to be Kenya’s nearly man. Yet in the days following his death in October 2025, tributes poured in from across the continent.
African Union Commission (AUC) chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf hailed him as “a steadfast champion of democracy” whose commitment to justice and reform inspired leaders across Africa [1]. Former Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta said Raila’s legacy is “etched … in the very fabric of our nation” [2]. Tanzanian president Samia Suluhu, speaking from Dar es Salaam, described him as a brilliant leader whose influence spanned East Africa [3]. In Kenya, younger politicians who once campaigned against him now described him as their mentor and the “political North Star” whose vision would outlive his electoral fortunes [4].
This paradox – a politician who lost every presidential race yet defined the country’s democratic trajectory – is central to understanding why Raila’s vision has survived his defeats. To unpack it, this investigative piece retraces Raila’s journey from dissident to elder statesman, examines the ideas he championed, and explains how those ideas have shaped Kenya and the wider region long after his last ballot box loss.
The making of a dissident
Born in 1945 as the son of Kenya’s first vice‑president, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Raila grew up steeped in politics. He trained as an engineer in East Germany but returned home to join the struggle against the one‑party rule of President Daniel arap Moi. In the 1980s and early 1990s he was detained without trial for nearly a decade for pushing for multiparty democracy. Reuters notes that the repeated detentions taught him “tolerance” and turned him into a resilient symbol of resistance [5]. When the Moi regime grudgingly allowed multiparty elections in 1992, Raila mobilized the opposition on a platform of constitutional change and social justice. He joined the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) led by his father and later formed the National Development Party (NDP) after internal rifts. According to a reflection by his longtime rival and later ally William Ruto, Raila resigned from KANU in 1992 and built a grassroots movement that emphasised strong political parties and space for youth [6]. This early insistence on participatory politics would remain a hallmark of his vision.
Raila’s first major electoral battle came in 1997 when he ran for president and finished third. The defeat did not diminish his stature; he used his NDP’s parliamentary presence to push for constitutional reform. By the late 1990s he had earned the nickname Agwambo, meaning “mystery/enigma” in Luo, because of his unpredictable alliances and ability to spring political surprises [7]. In 2002 he orchestrated the merger of his party with KANU but then dramatically broke away to support opposition candidate Mwai Kibaki under the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC). The coalition victory ended KANU’s four‑decade rule. As minister for roads and public works in the new government, Raila focused on infrastructure and devolution, anticipating his later Pan‑African focus on connectivity.
Visionary ideals: democracy, social justice and constitutionalism
Central to Raila’s worldview was the idea that Kenya’s political system needed structural transformation. He advocated for a parliamentary system, devolution, an independent judiciary and a bill of rights. In 2005 he led the “No” campaign against a draft constitution he believed preserved presidential imperialism. The resounding rejection was seen as a win for progressive forces and propelled him to the forefront of the opposition [8]. In the disputed 2007 presidential election, Raila claimed victory against incumbent Kibaki. The crisis sparked violence that left about 1,300 people dead and hundreds of thousands displaced [9]. International mediation produced a power‑sharing agreement. Raila became prime minister in a coalition government and pushed for constitutional reforms that culminated in the 2010 constitution. Former MP Gitobu Imanyara later remarked that Raila “changed the course of this country” and that the 2010 constitution would not exist without his movement [10].
For Raila, constitutional reform was not simply a legal exercise; it was a path towards social justice. He championed affirmative action for marginalized communities, progressive land reforms and economic inclusion. In a 2024 reflection, President William Ruto wrote that Raila believed Kenya’s struggle for freedom and democracy would be incomplete without economic emancipation and that he frequently quoted the national anthem’s call for “justice be our shield and defender … plenty be found within our borders” [11]. Raila’s emphasis on the economy came from his experience in the 1990s and 2000s, when structural adjustment programmes widened inequality. Although he later adopted market‑friendly rhetoric to attract business elites, he continued to speak about social safety nets, youth employment and “making the hustler the boss,” language that Ruto would later co‑opt.
Pan‑Africanism and infrastructure
Beyond Kenya, Raila invested in Pan‑African ideals. His father had been a leading proponent of African socialism and worked closely with Tanzania’s Julius Nyerere in the 1960s. Raila inherited that aspiration. The Chanzo, a Tanzanian news outlet, reported that he admired Nyerere and maintained close ties with Tanzania since the 1960s [15]. During his imprisonment, Nyerere issued him a Tanzanian passport that allowed him to study in East Germany. As prime minister he championed joint infrastructure projects such as the Lamu Port–South Sudan–Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor and the Northern Corridor, believing that connectivity would unlock East Africa’s economic potential. He later served as the African Union High Representative for Infrastructure Development, where he advocated for the Trans‑African Highway network. According to the Chanzo, the East African Community Secretary General noted that Raila championed regional integration and collective development, arguing that Africa’s strength lay in unity [16]. Tanzanian leaders called him a “towering Pan‑African statesman” who sought solutions across borders [17].
Raila’s pan‑African outlook culminated in his bid to become the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson for 2025-2028. Backed by President Ruto, he campaigned on a platform to reform AU institutions, accelerate the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and complete cross‑continental rail and road projects. Though he did not win the post, it ultimately went to Djibouti’s foreign minister in a close vote, his campaign brought attention to Africa’s geopolitical divisions. Analysts at the Wilson Center argued that his bid highlighted the challenge of balancing continental reform against national and regional interests; some AU member states supported him for his experience but others worried about Kenya’s domestic tensions and his handshake with Ruto. Nevertheless, the campaign signaled the maturation of Kenya’s leadership ambitions and cemented Raila’s pan‑African credentials.
A mirror of Kenya’s promises and contradictions
Raila’s life reads like a chronicle of Kenya’s own struggles. He was a reformist who occasionally collaborated with the very establishment he decried. An opinion piece in Al Jazeera argued that Raila should be remembered not as an “enigma” but as a mirror of Kenya’s tragedy; his compromise, whether with President Moi in the late 1990s or with Kenyatta and Ruto later, alienated a generation that longed for uncompromising leadership [18]. The writer noted that younger activists once rallied behind him in the 2000s but distanced themselves after his 2018 handshake and subsequent pacts [19]. They accused him of defending the very politicians he claimed to oppose and of turning a blind eye to corruption [20]. Yet the same article acknowledged that his numerous presidential bids – 1997, 2007, 2013, 2017, 2022 – kept alive the idea that Kenyans could vote out incumbents [19].
This inspiring hope while sometimes dashing it, is what makes Raila’s vision resilient. By organising protests, boycotts and political parties, he normalised opposition politics in a country where dissent was once treason. Even his critics credit him with entrenching a culture of civic engagement and shaping political language. Daily Nation writers observed that he became Kenya’s “political North Star,” electrifying rallies and making opposition part of everyday conversation [4]. That cultural shift transcends his personal wins or losses.
Why his vision outlived his victories
1. Institutional reforms and constitutional legacy
The 2010 constitution is perhaps Raila’s most significant legacy. It introduced devolution, strengthened independent commissions and created a Supreme Court that later annulled the 2017 election. Even opponents admit that the document, though imperfect, decentralised power and gave local communities more control over resources. In 2024, when the government wanted to raise taxes through the Finance Bill, county governments and civil society invoked devolution provisions to demand equity. The existence of these legal protections owes much to Raila’s early insistence on constitutionalism. As Imanyara noted, the constitution is unimaginable without his movement [10].
2. Normalising protest and opposition politics
Raila’s continuous agitation, from the 1990s street protests to the 2007 “people’s parliament” and the 2021 “hustler nation” rallies, normalized dissent. According to Daily Nation, his long career was “a love affair with protest,” and he became a symbol of endurance and courage for generations raised on fear [4]. This culture persists. In 2023 and 2025, when Kenyan youth protested high living costs and unemployment, they invoked Raila’s slogans and songs. Even after his final handshake with Ruto, activists still used “no reforms, no elections” as a chant, showing that his tactics outlived his direct participation.
3. Pan‑African infrastructure and continental connectivity
Raila’s focus on infrastructure as a path to unity continues to shape East African policy. The LAPSSET corridor, which he championed as prime minister, is now partially operational and expected to serve 70% of Ethiopia’s cargo once completed. As AU High Representative he pushed for the Trans‑African Highway 8 linking Lagos, Mombasa and Nairobi. While he did not get to oversee its completion, the framework he advocated continues to guide planning. Tanzania’s government credited him with championing integration and said his legacy would inspire future infrastructure cooperation [16]. The East African Community is now negotiating a common logistics platform partly based on recommendations from the team he led.
4. The Pan‑African imagination
At a time when nationalism is resurging globally, Raila’s Pan‑African message resonates. Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni, in his tribute, called Raila a “patriot, freedom fighter and Pan‑Africanist” and noted that both he and his late father shared a commitment to the unity of Kenya and Africa [21]. Museveni said they were ideologically oriented towards unity and always supported the dream of achieving the East African Federation [22]. The Chanzo reported that Tanzania’s leaders described him as a towering statesman whose influence transcended borders [17]. These tributes show that his vision for a united East Africa – built on shared infrastructure, trade and cultural exchange, remains influential.
5. Mentorship and generational impact
Raila mentored many younger leaders who now occupy high offices. President Ruto, once his political rival, wrote after his death that he learned from Raila’s energy, pragmatism and insistence on strong political parties [6]. Ruto recalled that Raila encouraged youths to take up leadership and that he supported Africa’s Agenda 2063 and Kenya’s Vision 2030, often quoting the national anthem’s plea for justice and abundance [23][11]. Former vice‑president Kalonzo Musyoka said in his tribute that Raila mentored him and shaped his own fight for multiparty democracy [24]. Wiper Party officials and ODM leaders emphasised that he built institutions, not just personal networks [25]. Even those who criticised him for the 2018 and 2024 handshakes admitted that his organisational skills and belief in party loyalty shaped Kenya’s political landscape.
6. A legend made by both defeat and resilience
If Raila had won any of his presidential races, he might have become another powerful incumbent and lost his mystique. Instead, each defeat reinforced his image as the people’s champion battling entrenched elites. His repeated candidacies kept hope alive for his supporters and made the idea of contestation a permanent fixture of Kenyan politics. Reuters observed that he inspired loyalty across ethnic lines and played key roles in two of Kenya’s major reforms – the introduction of multiparty democracy in 1991 and the 2010 constitution [26]. The same article notes that he was able to work with rivals even after bruising campaigns and that his supporters affectionately called him “Baba” [7]. Those elements, cross‑ethnic support, resilience in defeat, and willingness to negotiate, turned his losses into a narrative of unfinished business rather than finality.
The contradictions that fuelled criticism
To understand why Raila’s vision outlives him, one must also consider the contradictions that prevented him from achieving electoral victory. His alliance‑building sometimes meant compromising with the establishment, causing distrust among reformists. For example, his alignment with President Moi in the late 1990s, which included defending Moi’s record in Parliament, baffled many who had fought against the regime. When he joined President Kenyatta in 2018 and later Ruto in 2024, some supporters accused him of betraying the cause for personal gain [20]. The Al Jazeera opinion piece argued that his life reflected Kenya’s promise and disappointment and that the system made integrity almost impossible [27]. These criticisms highlight the complex environment in which he operated: a political culture of patronage and ethnicity, and a personal drive to remain relevant.
Another point of criticism was that Raila sometimes promoted contested development projects without adequate consultation. The BBI proposals, for instance, were criticised for expanding the executive and weakening checks and balances. While he argued that the changes would address exclusion, courts ruled the process unconstitutional. Similarly, some civil society activists contended that his focus on mega projects like LAPSSET and the Standard Gauge Railway came at the expense of community consultation and environmental concerns. Yet even critics concede that without his advocacy, infrastructure integration might not have remained on the agenda.
The final farewell and unresolved debates
When Raila died in October 2025 during a trip to India, Kenya entered an official week of mourning. President Ruto praised him as a patriot and Pan‑Africanist [28]. Former president Kenyatta said Raila’s “legacy is etched in the fabric of our nation” [2]. Kalonzo Musyoka and other opposition leaders described him as a liberator who fought for multiparty democracy despite years in jail [24]. The ODM party called him a “giant” and emphasised that it was too early to discuss his successor [25]. Even his foes such as Museveni – who had clashed with him over regional politics – highlighted his devotion to Pan‑Africanism [21]. Raila’s family followed his instructions to bury him within 72 hours, a move that reflected his desire to avoid protracted political wrangling [29].
As the nation mourned, debates about his legacy intensified. Many asked whether his handshakes prevented a civil war or perpetuated a system where elite pacts replaced grassroots accountability. Others wondered who would inherit his mantle. ODM’s statement that it was “too early” to discuss succession suggests that the party may struggle to remain cohesive without its founder’s charisma [25]. Meanwhile, younger activists are building new movements that, while inspired by his protests, are less tied to ethnic blocs and more focused on economic justice and anti‑corruption. They see Raila as a pioneer but not a panacea.
The enduring enigma
Raila Raila’s life defies neat conclusions. He was a son of privilege who became a dissident; an engineer who embraced populism; a man who lost every presidential race yet forced the rewriting of Kenya’s constitution and normalised street protests. His vision – of a Kenya governed by laws rather than fiat, of a region connected by rail and roads, and of an Africa uniting for economic justice – outlived his victories because it resonated beyond his personal ambitions. The tributes that followed his death underscore how deeply those ideals have seeped into Kenya’s political DNA and East Africa’s collective psyche [1][2][17].
Yet the very compromises he made to keep that vision alive also limited his ability to fully implement it. The next generation will have to decide which parts of his legacy to embrace and which to discard. They will grapple with the same paradox that defined Raila’s life: whether to fight from the outside or negotiate from within. Whatever choices they make, they will do so in a political landscape fundamentally reshaped by the man many called an enigma but who, above all, was a visionary who believed that Kenya and Africa deserved better. His victories may have been elusive, but his ideas endure.
Sources
[9] Raila Odinga, towering Kenyan opposition figure, dies aged 80 | Kenya | The Guardian
[15] [16] [17] A Bridge Across Borders: Tanzanian Leaders Mourn Raila Odinga, a Steadfast Ally - The Chanzo
[18] [19] [20] [27] Raila Odinga: The symbol and symptom of Kenya’s political tragedy | Opinions | Al Jazeera
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