Why Do Bad Leaders Still Get Re-elected?

In May 2023, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan secured re-election despite overseeing a collapsing currency, inflation nearing 50%, and accusations of authoritarian consolidation. Similarly, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán clinched a fourth consecutive term in 2022, even as independent watchdogs like Freedom House downgraded the country to “partly free” due to systemic corruption and media censorship. These cases underscore a perplexing global trend: leaders widely criticized as corrupt, incompetent, or autocratic continue to win elections.

Why does this happen? The answer lies at the intersection of polarization, economic perception, media manipulation, institutional decay, and opposition failure.

1. The Power of Polarization and Identity Politics

Modern democracies are increasingly fractured along ideological, cultural, and socioeconomic lines. In such environments, voters often prioritize tribal loyalty over performance. A 2022 Pew Research study found that 72% of Americans believe the opposing party’s policies “threaten the nation’s well-being,” reflecting a deepening “us versus them” mindset. This polarization enables leaders to retain power by framing elections as existential battles.

Hungary’s Orbán, for instance, has mastered this playbook. Despite eroding judicial independence and cracking down on dissent, he retains a 54% approval rating by casting himself as a defender of “Christian Europe” against immigration and “woke” liberalism. Similarly, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, who presided over one of the world’s highest COVID-19 death tolls, still garnered 49.1% of the vote in 2022 by rallying his base against “socialist threats.”

Key Data:

Polarization in the U.S. has surged, with 65% of Republicans and Democrats viewing each other as “immoral” (Pew, 2022).

In Hungary, Orbán’s Fidesz party holds 135 of 199 parliamentary seats despite winning only 53% of the vote, thanks to gerrymandered districts (Electoral Integrity Project, 2023).

2. Economic Perceptions vs. Reality

Economic voting theory suggests that voters punish leaders for poor economic performance. Yet, this isn’t always straightforward. Leaders often exploit short-term gains or manipulate narratives to deflect blame.

Take Turkey’s Erdoğan: despite inflation hitting 85% in 2022 (IMF), he won by touting infrastructure projects and raising pensions and wages ahead of the election. Voters in crisis often prefer the “devil they know” to uncertainty. Similarly, India’s Narendra Modi, accused of mismanaging COVID-19 and rising unemployment, secured re-election in 2019 by emphasizing welfare schemes and nationalist pride.

Key Data:

58% of Turkish voters cited “economic stability” as their top concern in 2023, yet many credited Erdoğan for targeted relief measures (Ipsos).

Modi’s approval rating remains at 67%, bolstered by free food programs reaching 800 million Indians (Morning Consult, 2023).

3. Media Manipulation and Disinformation

Control over information is a potent tool. Authoritarian-leaning leaders increasingly dominate media landscapes, stifling criticism and amplifying propaganda.

In Hungary, Orbán’s allies control 80% of media outlets, ensuring favorable coverage (Freedom House, 2023). Meanwhile, social media platforms like Facebook and WhatsApp have become vectors for disinformation. Bolsonaro’s 2022 campaign spread false claims about electronic voting fraud, which 46% of Brazilians believed (Reuters).

Key Data:

73% of Hungarians rely on government-aligned media for news (Eurobarometer, 2022).

False narratives on social media swayed 12% of voters in Brazil’s election (Stanford Internet Observatory).

4. Institutional Weaknesses and Electoral Manipulation

Democratic backsliding often begins with legal tweaks that entrench incumbents. Gerrymandering, voter suppression, and judicial interference tilt the playing field.

In the U.S., 27 states have enacted restrictive voting laws since 2020, disproportionately affecting minority voters (Brennan Center, 2023). Poland’s Law and Justice party, accused of undermining judicial independence, lost power in 2023 but only after years of exploiting institutional loopholes.

Key Data:

The U.S. ranks 31st in electoral integrity globally, below newer democracies like Lithuania (Electoral Integrity Project, 2023).

In India, the BJP won 37% of the vote in 2019 but 55% of seats, aided by gerrymandering (Lokniti-CSDS).

5. Opposition Fragmentation and Charisma Deficits

Weak opposition compounds the problem. Divided rivals split the anti-incumbent vote, while leaders like Modi or Orbán cultivate cults of personality.

In Turkey, the opposition’s six-party coalition struggled to present a coherent alternative to Erdoğan. In India, 26 parties formed an alliance against Modi in 2024, but infighting diluted their message. Charisma matters: leaders like Trump or Duterte project strength, resonating with voters weary of technocratic blandness.

Key Data:

Brazil’s Lula defeated Bolsonaro by just 1.8% in 2022, highlighting polarization (TSE).

62% of Filipinos approved of Duterte’s “strongman” approach despite human rights abuses (SWS, 2022).

Democracy’s Resilience and Vulnerability

The re-election of flawed leaders reveals democracy’s dual nature: resilient enough to hold elections yet vulnerable to manipulation. Solutions require systemic reforms—strengthening media independence, curbing gerrymandering, and fostering civic education. As voters, we must ask not just “What have you done?” but “How did you do it?” The stakes, as Orbán and Erdoğan show, could not be higher.